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COMMENTARY LOG GERMINATIONS EDUCATIONAL ROOTS

See the forest AND the trees.

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SEPT JOBS: ALL CLEAR?

By Alan Hartley, CFA | Published 2012/10/05

Today’s employment situation report was in our opinion a mixed bag.

The positives:

The household survey showed a very large rise in employment (+873,000) and a substantial decline in unemployment (-456,000). The unemployment rate fell to 7.8%, the lowest level 44 months. However, this survey can be very volatile.

The establishment survey showed private sector jobs rising 104,000 during the month.

Hourly earnings and weekly earnings rose.

The negatives:

If we assume a similar advance in inflation as last month, hourly earnings and weekly earnings fell in inflation-adjusted terms. So while nominal wages rose, workers earned less after the impact of inflation.

Part-time work for slack rose during the month.

Manufacturing hiring has stagnated.

U-6 unemployment, which is a broader measure than the unemployment rate, stayed constant at 14.7%.

We see the report as generally positive and indicative of a still slowly growing economy.

This material contains the current opinions of the author but not necessarily those of Black Cypress and such opinions are subject to change without notice. This material is distributed for informational purposes only. Forecasts, estimates, and certain information contained herein are based upon proprietary research and should not be considered as investment advice or a recommendation of any particular security, strategy or investment product. Information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but not guaranteed. No part of this article may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without proper reference. Past performance is not a guarantee and may not be a reliable indicator of future results. ©2013, Black Cypress Capital Management